Canary Islands Political Landscape Shifts as Coalition Government Gains Ground
Recent polling suggests a significant electoral advantage for the ruling coalition in the Canary Islands, led by Fernando Clavijo's team of Coalition Canaria and the Popular Party.
Recent survey data indicates that the coalition government in the Canary Islands, led by President Fernando Clavijo, is in a strong position heading into the mid-term of its legislative term.
The coalition, comprising Coalition Canaria (CC) and the Popular Party (PP), is projected to secure an absolute majority if elections were held today, an improvement from the 2023 elections when it required support from two other local parties to ensure stability and governance.
The poll conducted by Sigma Dos has found that CC and PP could potentially rule independently, achieving between 36 to 38 seats in the regional parliament, as opposed to their 34 seats two years ago, when they collectively garnered 19 and 15 seats respectively.
This situation necessitated strategic alliances with Agrupación Socialista Gomera (ASG) and Agrupación Herreña Independiente (AHI), which added three and one seats to their majority during the last electoral term.
The PP's rise in popularity plays a critical role in this shift.
The party is reported to have reached 21.3% of the votes, reflecting an increase of 1.6 percentage points over two years, leading to an estimated 17 to 18 seats, which marks an improvement of two to three seats from the prior election cycle.
Meanwhile, Coalition Canaria's1 estimated support has slightly decreased to 22.2%, but it is expected to maintain its seat count in the range of 19 to 20 based on polling data.
In contrast, the PSOE (Spanish Socialist Workers' Party), which has held significant influence in the archipelago, is at risk of losing parliamentary representation despite a minor increase of one-tenth in voter intention to 27.8%.
It currently holds 23 seats, but projections suggest it could fall to between 21 and 23 seats.
The unique electoral system in the Canary Islands complicates the dynamics further, as voters cast ballots in two distinct areas: their island and the broader autonomous constituency, which influences the allocation of parliamentary seats across the seven island constituencies.
Nueva Canarias has garnered around 6% of the voter intention, translating to three or four seats—a decline from previous elections, while Vox shows a notable increase of 1.5% to reach 9.5%, being projected to secure between three and five seats.
Both Podemos and Sumar are projected to be excluded from the parliament, with Podemos polling at 2.5% and Sumar being classified in the minor parties category due to lackluster results.
Meanwhile, the supporting parties for Clavijo's coalition, ASG and AHI, are forecasted to retain their representation, albeit with diminished influence if an absolute majority is confirmed.
Opinions on political leaders present an interesting picture: Fernando Clavijo receives a score of 4.6 out of 10, with his closest rival, Ángel Víctor Torres of the PSOE, closely following at 4.2. Manuel Domínguez of the PP remains significantly behind, earning a score of 3.6, indicating a lower public recognition.
The poll data is based on a study conducted between April 21 and May 28, 2025, involving a sample of 7,236 respondents aged 18 and older across Spain, adhering to a methodology combining telephone interviews and online surveys.
The margin of error for the sampling is calculated at 1.2% with a 95.5% confidence level.
The coalition, comprising Coalition Canaria (CC) and the Popular Party (PP), is projected to secure an absolute majority if elections were held today, an improvement from the 2023 elections when it required support from two other local parties to ensure stability and governance.
The poll conducted by Sigma Dos has found that CC and PP could potentially rule independently, achieving between 36 to 38 seats in the regional parliament, as opposed to their 34 seats two years ago, when they collectively garnered 19 and 15 seats respectively.
This situation necessitated strategic alliances with Agrupación Socialista Gomera (ASG) and Agrupación Herreña Independiente (AHI), which added three and one seats to their majority during the last electoral term.
The PP's rise in popularity plays a critical role in this shift.
The party is reported to have reached 21.3% of the votes, reflecting an increase of 1.6 percentage points over two years, leading to an estimated 17 to 18 seats, which marks an improvement of two to three seats from the prior election cycle.
Meanwhile, Coalition Canaria's1 estimated support has slightly decreased to 22.2%, but it is expected to maintain its seat count in the range of 19 to 20 based on polling data.
In contrast, the PSOE (Spanish Socialist Workers' Party), which has held significant influence in the archipelago, is at risk of losing parliamentary representation despite a minor increase of one-tenth in voter intention to 27.8%.
It currently holds 23 seats, but projections suggest it could fall to between 21 and 23 seats.
The unique electoral system in the Canary Islands complicates the dynamics further, as voters cast ballots in two distinct areas: their island and the broader autonomous constituency, which influences the allocation of parliamentary seats across the seven island constituencies.
Nueva Canarias has garnered around 6% of the voter intention, translating to three or four seats—a decline from previous elections, while Vox shows a notable increase of 1.5% to reach 9.5%, being projected to secure between three and five seats.
Both Podemos and Sumar are projected to be excluded from the parliament, with Podemos polling at 2.5% and Sumar being classified in the minor parties category due to lackluster results.
Meanwhile, the supporting parties for Clavijo's coalition, ASG and AHI, are forecasted to retain their representation, albeit with diminished influence if an absolute majority is confirmed.
Opinions on political leaders present an interesting picture: Fernando Clavijo receives a score of 4.6 out of 10, with his closest rival, Ángel Víctor Torres of the PSOE, closely following at 4.2. Manuel Domínguez of the PP remains significantly behind, earning a score of 3.6, indicating a lower public recognition.
The poll data is based on a study conducted between April 21 and May 28, 2025, involving a sample of 7,236 respondents aged 18 and older across Spain, adhering to a methodology combining telephone interviews and online surveys.
The margin of error for the sampling is calculated at 1.2% with a 95.5% confidence level.
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