On April 2, U.S. President Donald Trump announced significant increases in tariffs that have raised concerns among governments and markets globally.

Starting immediately, a general tariff of 10% will be applied to nearly all U.S. imports.

Additionally, reciprocal tariffs will come into effect on April 9, including a 20% tariff on exports from the European Union and rates as high as 54% for China.

According to an analysis by the Fundación de las Cajas de Ahorros (FUNCAS), the direct impact of these measures on the Spanish economy is estimated to be "relatively limited," with projections suggesting a potential reduction in GDP growth between 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points.

While Spain exports approximately €18.1 billion worth of goods to the U.S., accounting for just 1.1% of its GDP, this figure is considerably lower than that of other countries such as Mexico and Canada, which export 75.6% and 76% of their goods, respectively, to the U.S.

Spanish companies also sell components valued at around €9 billion, which are integrated into European products destined for the U.S. market.

This reality raises the total value of Spanish exports to the U.S. to about 1.9% of the national GDP. FUNCAS projects that a 20% average tariff could lead to a 20% decrease in the volume of goods exported directly to the U.S., impacting Spain’s GDP accordingly.

Certain sectors are likely to be disproportionately affected.

Over 10% of Spain’s exports in machinery, oils, ships, wine, and chemicals are sent to the U.S. Other notable categories include furniture, prepared foods, fish products, dairy, eggs, aircraft, pharmaceuticals, and precision electrical equipment.

The tariffs represent a potential disruption to these industries, threatening competitiveness and revenue.

FUNCAS emphasizes that the indirect effects of these tariffs could be more significant than the direct impact on exports.

Countries like China, severely affected by U.S. tariffs, may seek new markets, potentially resulting in a flood of low-priced products into Europe, which could negatively impact European producers.

Furthermore, uncertainty surrounding international trade rules may stifle investment in Spain.

The correlation between investments in capital goods and exports suggests that declines in sales abroad could lead firms to postpone or cancel investment projects, further affecting economic growth.

A specific concern raised is the potential influx of low-cost Chinese products sold online, particularly those valued under €150 which could circumvent taxes in Europe due to existing exemptions.

This scenario could further harm local industries.

In terms of consumer prices, FUNCAS indicates that the U.S. tariffs are not expected to directly alter the prices Spanish consumers pay.

Initially, products such as oil and wine could decrease in price if they cannot find a market in the U.S. However, if these sales cannot be redirected, it could lead to the closure of businesses, resulting in a mid-term rise in prices due to a "permanent destruction of activity."

Should the EU impose retaliatory tariffs, the report predicts their impact on Spanish consumer prices would be minimal, given that Spain imports a limited amount of consumer goods directly from the U.S. A more pressing concern is a potential increase in industrial input costs for manufacturers in Spain.

FUNCAS also notes that Trump's tariff strategy appears intended to generate sufficient revenue to fund a significant tax cut plan projected at $5 trillion, which could increase disposable income for American consumers but may also lead to inflationary pressures and rising interest rates.

In response, FUNCAS highlights that the European Commission has pledged a firm reaction, although specific measures have yet to be disclosed.

One available option is the Anti-Coercion Instrument, which would enable the EU to respond to U.S. tariffs if approved by a qualified majority of member states.