In the wake of a national power outage that affected the entire Spanish peninsula and a railway crisis caused by cable theft on AVE tracks, the People's Party (PP) has gained ground in voter estimation, recovering 3.2 points against the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) within a month, according to the latest barometer from the Centre for Sociological Research (CIS).

If general elections were held today, the PSOE would remain the leading force with 32% of the vote, losing only six tenths compared to the previous month.

Meanwhile, the PP is projected to receive 29.3%, closing the gap to just 2.7 points from the socialists; a significant decrease from their 6.5 point deficit noted last month.

Vox remains the third political force; however, it has lost momentum compared to the previous month, registering a decline of 1.5 points, estimated at 13.7%.

Conversely, Sumar has also experienced a slight decrease to 6.1%, illustrating a growing distance from third place and reinforcing its declining support during this legislative period.

In contrast, Podemos has seen an improvement in backing, now standing at 4.3%, reflecting two consecutive months of increase and reducing its gap with its coalition partner to less than two points.

The CIS estimates for May reflect voter sentiment captured during a survey conducted between May 5 and May 8, shortly after the power outage that occurred on April 28, the causes of which remain undetermined.

During this period, public infrastructure issues also highlighted the impact of cable theft, which led to significant railway disruptions between Madrid and Andalusia, initially labeled as 'sabotage' by the government.

The April barometer positioned the PSOE 6.5 points ahead of the PP, as the latter faced its lowest support of the entire legislative period at 26.1%, while Vox peaked at 15.2% for the first time since 2022. The recent survey points to a 'pendulum shift,' marking an upward trend for the PP and a downward trajectory for Vox, coinciding with a major fine imposed by the Court of Accounts on Vox amounting to over €860,000 for 'very serious' infractions regarding illegal donations received in 2018, 2019, and 2020.

Additionally, the CIS allocates 1.5% of the vote to the party led by MEP Luis 'Alvise' Pérez, which represents a decrease of four tenths from the previous month.

This survey period also corresponded with the departure of two of Pérez's EU colleagues, who accused him of misinformation, personal threats, and blackmail, following a Supreme Court decision to initiate a third criminal case against him pertaining to messages targeting Susana Gisbert, the prosecutor of hate crimes and discrimination in Valencia.

Other notable parties in the survey include ERC with 1.6% support (a decrease of one tenth from April), Junts holding steady at 1.1%, and for the Basque parties, PNV increased by four tenths to 1.1%, overtaking EH Bildu, which fell by two tenths to 0.8%.

Public sentiment regarding the proposal to lower the voting age from 18 to 16 appears overwhelmingly negative, with 79.3% of Spaniards opposing the measure being considered by the government and supported by several parliamentary left-wing allies.

The latest CIS barometer explicitly addressed this issue, revealing that nearly eight out of ten citizens express disagreement or strong disagreement with the move, while only 18.4% support it.

This proposal for youth enfranchisement remains a draft as clarified by Minister of Youth and Childhood Sira Rego, who indicated that it could soon begin legislative processing.

It represents a planned reform of the General Electoral Regime Law (Loreg), approved by the PSOE during its 41st Federal Congress held in November 2024, enjoying a broad consensus among its usual parliamentary allies.

Historically, opposition to this change has been most pronounced among PP and Vox voters, with nearly 90% expressing disapproval (88.8% and 84.7%, respectively).

Conversely, supporters include voters from EH Bildu (37.2% in favor), ERC (38.6%), and Junts (32.4%), with Sumar voters showing a support level of 26.3%.

The perception of government and political issues as a primary concern for citizens reached new heights this month.

Housing continues to be identified as the foremost national problem, recognized by 25.5% of respondents, although this marks a decline of 3.3 points from the previous month.

Other economic issues such as unemployment (19.2%) and general economic conditions (19.1%) follow as the third and fourth most pressing concerns.

Notably, 'political problems in general' has emerged as a heightened concern, now identified by 19.7% of citizens (an increase of 3.3 points), and concerns regarding the government and political parties have reached a record 18.1%, climbing nearly five points since last month.

In contrast, worry about immigration remains significant at 15.5%, although it has decreased by almost two points.

Concerns about job quality have risen to 14.4%, with public perceptions of politicians' misconduct noted by 13.4%, health care at 11.3%, and the crisis of values cited as a critical issue for 8% of respondents.

In terms of political leadership, citizens have rated their leaders poorly.

Pedro Sánchez, the Socialist leader, retains the top position as the preferred candidate for Prime Minister with 25.4% support, while Alberto Núñez Feijóo of the PP has garnered 10.2%, closely followed by Santiago Abascal of Vox at 7.4%.

Notably, 27% of respondents opted for 'none of them' when asked about their preferred political leader at this time.

Overall, the political figures have not achieved passing scores in public evaluations, with Sánchez receiving an average rating of 4.15, followed by Second Vice President Yolanda Díaz at 3.89, Feijóo at 3.78, and Abascal at the bottom with a score of 2.9.