The prospect of peace negotiations in Ukraine has prompted investors to reassess their positions in various markets, particularly regarding assets linked to Russia and Ukraine.

The well-known market adage, "buy on the rumor, sell on the news," resonates as discussions intensify, including anticipated dialogue between notable figures such as former President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

This atmosphere of cautious optimism has led investors with a higher risk appetite to strategically enter positions in assets likely to benefit from a potential ceasefire and subsequent easing of sanctions on Russia.

The Russian ruble has experienced a significant surge, appreciating by approximately 35% year-to-date and nearing a seven-month high against the US dollar, currently trading at around 84 rubles per dollar.

However, trading volumes remain relatively low due to ongoing restrictions imposed by Western nations.

In the foreign exchange market, demand has also shifted towards more unconventional currencies, such as the Kazakhstani tenge, which has appreciated by about 5% against the dollar in 2025. The rationale for this investment lies in the possibility that a cessation of hostilities would benefit Russia, Kazakhstan’s primary trading partner, thereby bolstering Kazakhstan’s economy.

Investor interest is not yet widespread, given persistent uncertainties regarding the success of peace negotiations.

However, some indicators of market responsiveness to the idea of peace are observable.

For instance, the WIG Ukraine Index, which comprises companies highly exposed to Ukraine or based there, has surged by 60% in 2025, approaching pre-war levels.

Similarly, shares of United Company Rusal, one of the world’s largest aluminum producers, listed in Hong Kong, have risen by 64% year-to-date.

Austrian financial institution Raiffeisen Bank, which has struggled to offload its Russian subsidiary, has seen its shares increase by 35%, while Hungarian bank OTP, which continues its operations in Russia, reported a 17% rise in its stock price.

In the fixed-income markets, Ukrainian 10-year bonds have ascended from trading at 44% of their nominal value to 58%, as investors speculate on the country's increasing ability to meet its debt obligations.

In the energy sector, European TTF natural gas prices are nearing a 30% decline since their recent highs of February 10, approaching €40 per megawatt-hour.

This drop is attributed to expectations that, with peace, sanctions on Russia may be relaxed, potentially leading to increased gas supplies.

This price decrease is notably more significant when contrasted with the peak of nearly €300 per megawatt-hour observed in August 2022 at the height of supply concerns amid the war in Ukraine.

Analysts from Deutsche Bank have projected that if Western nations were to resume purchasing Russian gas at pre-war rates, prices could decline to approximately €30 per megawatt-hour.

This scenario would substantially reduce energy costs for households and businesses alike, potentially benefiting high-energy-consuming industries, such as chemicals and steel, which have faced steep input cost increases throughout the energy crisis from 2021 to 2023.

A reduction in energy prices could also contribute to easing inflation, facilitating central banks in further lowering interest rates—a crucial factor that could support continued positive performance in equity markets through 2025. Nonetheless, the prospect of a stable return to normalcy in Europe-Russia relations remains uncertain.

Lessons drawn from the conflict, particularly by the European Union and countries like Germany, highlight the risks associated with dependency on unreliable partners in critical sectors, leading to a potential structural shift toward more secure but higher-cost energy suppliers.

Additionally, the reconstruction of Ukraine presents an opportunity for companies involved in infrastructure repair.

The World Bank estimates that rebuilding efforts may require approximately €450 billion over the next decade.

European construction and infrastructure development firms are likely to benefit, particularly those in materials sectors such as cement, paint, and steel.

Given the extensive damage to Ukrainian energy and communications infrastructure—including high-voltage cables and communication equipment—European companies could play a vital role in meeting Ukraine’s reconstruction needs.

Polish firms, due to their geographical proximity and the employment of a significant number of Ukrainian refugees, may be particularly well positioned in this context.