CIS Barometer Shows PSOE Leading Amid Political Changes
Latest poll indicates PSOE at 32%, ahead of PP at 29.3%, coinciding with legislative efforts to reform the CIS.
The latest barometer from the Spanish Center for Sociological Research (CIS), released on May 14, 2025, shows the Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) led by Pedro Sánchez garnering 32% of votes in hypothetical elections, compared to 29.3% for the People's Party (PP) under Alberto Núñez Feijóo. This marks a decrease in the PSOE's lead, which was previously assessed at 6.5 points in the last barometer, now narrowed to 2.7 points.
Notably, this poll is unique as it is the only one suggesting a victory for the PSOE.
The barometer's release closely follows a parliamentary vote on May 13 aimed at reforming the CIS to reduce political influence, with the proposed legislation supported by the PP, Vox, and Junts.
The initiative seeks to establish a more independent selection process for the presidency of the CIS, moving away from direct appointments by the Ministry of Presidency to a system requiring parliamentary approval.
Critics of the CIS, including members of the PP, argue that the organization has become biased in favor of the PSOE since José Félix Tezanos assumed leadership in mid-2018, with consistent survey results favoring the socialists over the opposition.
The data for this month's barometer was collected from May 5 to May 8, following critical events including the recent service disruption caused by a copper theft affecting the AVE train line between Madrid and Seville.
This incident drew attention as the government has not yet provided clarity on the circumstances surrounding these events.
Despite such challenges, the CIS forecasts the PSOE will continue to lead in future elections.
Tezanos has slightly adjusted projections for the PSOE from 32.6% in the April barometer to 32% in May, reflecting minimal impact from the recent events.
Conversely, the PP's projection increased by 3.2 points compared to April.
Vox remains the third-largest party but has seen a decline from 15.2% to 13.7% in voter intention, while estimates for both Sumar and Podemos show marginal changes, with Podemos seeing a slight rise to 4.3% and Sumar experiencing a minor decrease of 0.1 points.
Notably, this poll is unique as it is the only one suggesting a victory for the PSOE.
The barometer's release closely follows a parliamentary vote on May 13 aimed at reforming the CIS to reduce political influence, with the proposed legislation supported by the PP, Vox, and Junts.
The initiative seeks to establish a more independent selection process for the presidency of the CIS, moving away from direct appointments by the Ministry of Presidency to a system requiring parliamentary approval.
Critics of the CIS, including members of the PP, argue that the organization has become biased in favor of the PSOE since José Félix Tezanos assumed leadership in mid-2018, with consistent survey results favoring the socialists over the opposition.
The data for this month's barometer was collected from May 5 to May 8, following critical events including the recent service disruption caused by a copper theft affecting the AVE train line between Madrid and Seville.
This incident drew attention as the government has not yet provided clarity on the circumstances surrounding these events.
Despite such challenges, the CIS forecasts the PSOE will continue to lead in future elections.
Tezanos has slightly adjusted projections for the PSOE from 32.6% in the April barometer to 32% in May, reflecting minimal impact from the recent events.
Conversely, the PP's projection increased by 3.2 points compared to April.
Vox remains the third-largest party but has seen a decline from 15.2% to 13.7% in voter intention, while estimates for both Sumar and Podemos show marginal changes, with Podemos seeing a slight rise to 4.3% and Sumar experiencing a minor decrease of 0.1 points.
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