In recent weeks, fuel prices across Europe have shown little movement despite a marked decline in oil prices and a weaker dollar.

The Brent crude oil price has fallen nearly 15% this year, currently hovering below €60 per barrel, a level not seen in four years.

Concurrently, the dollar has depreciated over 7% against the euro, further amplifying the effects of cheaper oil.

However, European consumers have not noticed significant relief at the fuel pump.

According to recent data released by the European Union's Petroleum Bulletin, the average price for petrol in Spain stands at approximately €1.45 per liter, while diesel is priced around €1.36 per liter.

These figures represent a decrease of 5% and 9%, respectively, since the beginning of the year, despite over a 20% reduction in the price of crude oil in euros.

This discrepancy highlights a persistent phenomenon often referred to as the 'rocket and feather' effect, where fuel prices rise swiftly when the cost of crude increases but fall slowly in response to decreasing crude prices.

Jorge León, vice president and head of petroleum analysis at a consultancy firm, noted a historical correlation between crude oil prices in euros and diesel prices across European markets.

However, he indicated that this relationship has weakened significantly in recent months, due in part to ongoing uncertainties in the oil market, influenced by changing dynamics within the OPEC+ coalition, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia.

Demand for oil is also facing pressures from global trade tensions.

According to León, if the historical correlation were to be maintained, current diesel prices would be about €0.15 lower than what consumers are currently experiencing at service stations.

The Organization of Consumers and Users (OCU) supports this assertion, providing data that reveals that during the spring of 2021, when oil prices in euros were comparable to today's rates, petrol was priced around €1.36 per liter, with diesel at €1.22—indicating higher prices now despite lower crude costs.

Enrique García from the OCU stated that historically, fuel price declines lag behind decreases in crude oil prices, a pattern that appears to be even more pronounced at the moment.

He suggested that greater competition in the fuel distribution market could accelerate price declines.

Conversely, Inés Cardenal from the Spanish Petroleum Companies Association (AICE) argued that the prices at the pump do not correlate directly with crude prices but are influenced more by international pricing of refined products.

She emphasized that before tax, the prices of fuels have followed international trends, including recent price reductions.

Cardenal also highlighted increased costs due to the National Energy Efficiency Fund.

Currently, the crude oil price and refining costs constitute just over one-third of the final gasoline price, and approximately 38% for diesel.

The remaining costs come from taxes, which account for 48% for gasoline and 43% for diesel.

These tax rates have remained unchanged, despite repeated calls from the European Commission for Spain to align diesel taxation more closely with that of gasoline.