Recent polling data has revealed significant shifts in the Spanish political landscape, with Vox observing a decrease in voter estimation following the imposition of tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump.

In the latest barometer conducted by the 40dB institute, Vox's support has dropped by 0.7 percentage points to 13.4%, marking its largest decline since the previous month.

Meanwhile, the party 'Se Acabó la Fiesta' (SALF), which also supports Trump, experienced a 0.6-point loss in voter estimation.

The People's Party (PP) gained 1.3 points, now standing at 33.9%, which represents a decrease of 0.8 points compared to their results in the recent elections; this follows two consecutive months of recovery for the party.

The Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) remained stable with a voter estimation of 29.3%, though this indicates a decline of 2.4 points since the general elections.

Left-wing coalition partners Sumar and Podemos faced challenges, with Sumar stabilizing at 5.4% and Podemos, after splitting from the coalition, recording 3.1%.

Together, their combined support is significantly lower than their joint showing in the 2023 elections, reflecting a drop of four points.

In broader electoral terms, the right-wing bloc comprising the PP and Vox leads over the left-wing coalition of PSOE, Sumar, and Podemos by 9.5 percentage points, extending to 11.6 points when including SALF's support.

The collective intention of vote for the parties backing Pedro Sánchez’s government, including Junts, ERC, EH Bildu, PNV, BNG, and CC, stands at 6.1%, also down nearly one point from their electoral outcomes.

This recent poll, which surveyed 2,000 respondents online between April 24 and 27, occurred just before significant political events, including Sánchez's disavowal of Interior Minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska and the cancellation of a contract to purchase ammunition from an Israeli firm.

During this timeframe, it was reported that Spain had awarded 46 contracts totaling over 1 billion euros to the Israeli military industry since the onset of the Gaza conflict.

The Senate, where the PP holds an absolute majority, has continued to conduct sessions concerning the 'Koldo Case', a corruption scandal involving former minister José Luis Ábalos.

Additionally, Madrid’s regional president, Isabel Díaz Ayuso, faced scrutiny during Assembly questioning over her shared living arrangements with a partner under investigation for tax fraud.

Voter loyalty appears to be stabilizing for the PP, with 82.6% of their 2023 supporters indicating they would again choose the party.

This loyalty is reflected in a nearly halved rate of defection to Vox, dropping from 10.5% to 5.9%.

Vox maintains a substantial voter fidelity of 83.1%, but its attrition to the PP has risen from 2.9% to 5.8% over the polling period.

Meanwhile, an estimated 12.4% of 2023 PSOE voters are now either abstaining or undecided, indicating shifts in electoral engagement.

Demographically, the PP leads in intention of vote among male constituents at 21.5%, while the PSOE secures a higher percentage among female voters at 25.6%.

A notable segment of women voters expresses political discontent, with 26.4% categorized as undecided, blank, or null voters.

Vox's male voter estimation stands at 16% compared to 10.8% among females.

In the young electorate aged 18 to 24, Vox retains the top position with 21.2%, closely followed by the PSOE with 19%.

Nonetheless, substantial political disaffection is noted in youth demographics, with 30.3% identifying as undecided or choosing to abstain.