Since taking office, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has increased defense spending by over 50%, a shift influenced by the invasion of Ukraine and commitments to NATO.

This marks a significant change from Sánchez's earlier stance in 2014, when he, as the Secretary-General of the PSOE, claimed the Ministry of Defense was unnecessary.

The emerging context highlights the potential for a 'grand coalition' between Spain’s two major political parties—PSOE and the People's Party (PP)—on defense matters, as prompted by recent developments within the European Union.

Despite alignment on many defense issues, Sánchez and PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo face difficulties negotiating on this front, influenced by their respective party bases' sentiments.

Left-wing parties have adopted narratives more reminiscent of Cold War dynamics, often criticizing NATO rather than focusing on the actions of Russia, particularly since the onset of the current conflict in Ukraine.

Notably, during Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to Spain in 2024, several left-wing parties—including Podemos, ERC, Bildu, and BNG—chose not to attend the meeting, highlighting a schism in approach toward defense and international alliances.

Feijóo criticized Sánchez for not consulting Santiago Abascal of Vox regarding military rearmament, a party viewing itself as part of a broader European right-wing coalition.

However, the European People’s Party has distanced itself from Vox, placing restrictions on collaboration due to concerns over ties with pro-Putin factions, particularly evident in Hungary.

The paradox exists wherein both PSOE and PP must navigate a façade of disagreement domestically while exhibiting cohesion at the European level.

In Spain, the bipartisan support for European elections in 2024 underscores an entrenched electoral base amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.

The EU is at a foundational point regarding defense, necessitating active engagement and commitment among its member states, particularly as both Spain's southern border and the Eastern regions of the bloc face security concerns.

Sánchez might consider sidestepping the need for formal PP coalition support in fulfilling European commitments, especially given the delicate electoral implications of mutual approaches to defense.

There is speculation that extraordinary credits aimed at bolstering defense expenditure could be approved through a Council of Ministers agreement, although this raises concerns over democratic transparency given the absence of parliamentary debate.

Should Sánchez present a specific defense plan in Parliament, gaining support from mainstream left coalitions such as Podemos and nationalist parties may prove challenging, necessitating engagement with the PP. Consequently, the prospect of a cooperative defense strategy remains contingent on the unstable dynamics within the Spanish political landscape.

The youth faction of Vox has labelled the PP as “PSOE in blue,” reflecting a rising perception among voters that both parties are upholding a similar status quo in various political agreements, including those related to European defense.

The current state of affairs in Spain reveals an underlying tension between demonstrating a unified front on defense while simultaneously managing internal party dynamics.

Although Podemos was part of the government when the defense budget was increased, its current role as a proponent of fiscal restraint showcases a significant evolution in party positioning since its inception.

The EU's overarching goals do not involve funding Spain's security through budget cuts; rather, military investments will not count towards deficit objectives, with a portion of the pledged 800 billion euro increase being financed by community budget-backed loans.

Vox’s position has also demonstrated contradictions; while advocating for increased defense spending, the party voted against rearmament in a recent European Parliament session.

As debates surrounding Ukraine's support evolve, accusations of a balanced stance may complicate Vox’s political narrative.

As the government navigates this landscape, it may face the perception of isolation in Congress.

Historically, Sánchez has taken unilateral actions without extensive consultation with opposition leaders, such as during the abdication of the former king.

The evolution of a defense 'grand coalition' under Sanchez may be more markedly characterized by internal disloyalty or external apprehension rather than by a significant lack of parliamentary support.