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Sunday, Jan 05, 2025

Ukraine Halts Russian Natural Gas Transit to the EU

Gazprom's supply cut highlights EU efforts to diversify energy sources amid geopolitical tensions.
In a decisive move marking the culmination of fraught Russo-Ukrainian energy ties, Gazprom has officially halted natural gas deliveries through Ukraine, citing the expiration of a transit accord initially ratified in 2020.

This development leaves Turkey as the lone conduit for Russian gas into the European Union, posing immediate challenges, notably for the separatist region of Transnistria in Moldova, now facing a critical energy shortage.

Gazprom's statement attributed the cessation to Ukraine's refusal to extend the existing agreements, thus legally and technically obstructing further transit through Ukrainian territory as of January 1, 2025.

This closure signals not just an end to a contractual relationship but to a decade-long contentious liaison cast into turbulence following Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014.

The EU, in response to the escalating Ukraine conflict since 2022, has intensified its bid to diminish reliance on Russian energy, pivoting towards alternate suppliers like Qatar and the United States.

These efforts have so far successfully stabilized gas prices within the bloc, mitigating immediate impacts from the cessation of Russian supplies.

Conversely, Gazprom faces significant financial repercussions, tallying losses exceeding 6.7 billion euros, marking its first fiscal shortfall since 1999.

Despite strategic shifts towards Chinese markets, the energy giant struggles to offset declining western exports.

European Commission spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen reinforced the EU's preparedness, emphasizing the continent's versatile infrastructure, which facilitates non-Russian gas imports, bolstered by substantial increases in liquefied natural gas capacity since 2022.

While the broader European energy market remains stable, Slovakia's Prime Minister Robert Fico warns of a 'drastic impact' on the EU from the halted Ukrainian transit.

His New Year's message underscores concerns about the implications for European countries as they navigate high energy costs impacting industrial competitiveness, especially in Germany against global counterparts like the United States and China.

Ukraine also faces significant financial losses—estimated at $800 million annually—from forfeited transit fees, while Gazprom projects losses near $5 billion in gas sales.

Moldova, among the hardest hit by the transit disruption, must make strenuous efforts to reduce gas consumption by a third.

As this geopolitical energy narrative unfolds, it raises profound questions about Europe's energy security strategy amidst evolving geopolitical landscapes, prompting a reconsideration of resilience frameworks and bilateral dependencies.
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