The prospect of new tariffs from the United States, hinted at by President Donald Trump, has raised alarms among various productive sectors in Spain for which the U.S. market accounts for a substantial portion of their sales.

Key sectors at risk include capital goods, such as mechanical and electrical machinery, olive oil, steel, and refined petroleum, which collectively contribute billions of euros in exports to the United States.

Other affected sectors include wine, biodiesel, and ceramics, which, while lower in total export value, comprise a significant proportion of Spain's foreign trade.

Overall, the United States represents nearly 5% of Spain's exports of goods and services, making it the sixth-largest destination for Spanish products, following France, Germany, Italy, Portugal, and the United Kingdom.

In contrast, Spain accounts for less than 1% of U.S. imports, ranking 21st among its global suppliers, according to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

In recent years, the significance of the U.S. market for the Spanish economy has increased, reaching a record high for exports in 2022. However, in 2024, exports fell by 3.8% to €18.179 billion.

This increase in sales has not prevented the trade balance between the two countries from remaining heavily tilted in favor of the United States, which maintains a substantial trade surplus over Spain.

The commercial imbalance has grown in recent years, largely due to increased Spanish imports of liquefied natural gas following the onset of the war in Ukraine, which tripled in 2022 to over €9.7 billion.

That year, Spain's trade deficit with the U.S. approached €15 billion, with a coverage rate – the percentage of imports that are offset by exports – plummeting to just 56%, down from approximately 90% in previous years.

If Trump's strategy seeks to address the U.S. trade deficit through general tariffs against all EU products, Spain does not appear to be a primary target.

Estimates from the Bank of Spain suggest that under a scenario of a general 10% tariff on all U.S. imports, paired with retaliatory measures, the Spanish GDP would decline by only 0.11 percentage points.

Nonetheless, the effects on specific sectors could be more detrimental.

Steel and Aluminum

As of now, the only tariff enforced by the U.S. is a 25% duty on imported steel and aluminum, effective since March 12. The United States did not remove the tariffs issued by Trump during his first term; instead, the Biden administration reached an agreement with the EU to replace them with a quota system permitting a certain amount of imports duty-free, beyond which tariffs would apply.

Although Spain is not a major supplier of steel or aluminum to the United States, data indicates that Trump's original tariff imposed in June 2018 led to a 26.4% drop in steel exports from 327,000 to 240,000 tons in 2019. Following the introduction of the quota system in October 2021, sales rebounded.

The Chamber of Commerce estimates that the new tariff could reduce the total export value by an average of 10.4%, equating to a loss of nearly €84 million on the €807 million worth of steel exported in 2024 and an additional €12.7 million on the almost €123 million in aluminum sales.

Machinery

Two-thirds of Spanish exports to the U.S. comprise industrial products and technology, with mechanical and electrical machinery being top sellers.

The United States is the second-largest market for Spanish machinery, particularly mechanical engines, following France, with €2.510 billion in 2024, constituting 9% of total sales.

In the case of specific sectors, such as turbojet engines, turbohelices, and gas turbines, this percentage rose to 17.5% last year, amounting to €463 million that could be significantly reduced by tariffs.

Electric machinery exports, valued at €1.503 billion last year (7.1% of total foreign sales), would similarly face challenges if tariffs were imposed, particularly for electrical transformers and inductors, with the U.S. being the principal market, absorbing nearly one-third of Spain’s exports in this category, which reached over €771 million in 2024.

Olive Oil

Following machinery, Spain's principal export to the U.S. consists of fats, predominantly olive oil.

For over a decade, the U.S. has been the second-largest purchaser of Spanish olive oil, trailing Italy, and accounts for approximately 15% of total sales.

The highest volume of exports occurred in 2020, exceeding 155,000 tons; however, last year saw a record value for those exports, surpassing €1 billion for the first time.

Moreover, while Italy primarily sells bulk olive oil to the U.S., around half of Spain’s exports to this market are bottled olive oil, according to Asoliva, the association representing most exporters.

Consequently, any tariffs could have particularly harmful effects on this sector.

Refined Petroleum Products and Biodiesel

Combustibles, especially refined petroleum products, constitute a significant segment of Spanish exports to the United States.

In 2022, these products were the top group exported, surpassing €1 billion and accounting for over 6% of total foreign sales, although exports to the U.S. halved compared to the previous two years.

The U.S. ranks as the fifth major client for Spanish refining, following Morocco, France, Portugal, and the Netherlands.

Conversely, the U.S. is a crucial market for biodiesel production, absorbing 24% of Spanish sales in this sector in 2024, totaling €432.5 million.

This market has seen fluctuations since 2018, with significant increases in 2021 and 2023, but it too could be affected by potential tariffs.

Wine and Other Products

Multiple sectors may suffer from tariffs threatened by the Trump administration.

For instance, Trump has targeted imposition of a 200% tariff on all wines, champagnes, and alcoholic beverages from the EU in response to Brussels' announced tariffs on the U.S. This level of tariff would effectively triple retail prices, potentially costing the Spanish wine sector its second-largest export market, accounting for nearly 10% of sales, which in 2024 amounted to €265 million.

Notably affected would be Spain’s esteemed wines, such as cava and Rioja.

Additionally, the United States is the main market for Spanish ceramic tiles, contributing €470.24 million in 2024, representing 13.5% of total exports from the sector.

As the situation unfolds, uncertainties remain over a significant part of the Spanish production chain, as one of its principal clients, the world’s leading economic power, positions itself against its products.