The European Commission has indicated that Spain is currently experiencing a "deceleration in migratory flow," marking a reduction in the pace at which individuals from other countries are arriving in search of employment.

This situation is attributed to the expected slow down of the Spanish economy, projected by Brussels in the coming months.

Paradoxically, this trend is associated with improving unemployment rates, as a declining labor force contributes to lower unemployment figures.

According to forecasts released by the European Commission, the unemployment rate in Spain is expected to decrease steadily, falling slightly below 10% by 2026, down from 11.4% in 2024. This decline is supported by additional job creation and a moderation in the overall growth of the labor force compared to recent years.

Commission sources have highlighted that in the past two to three years, there have been significant migratory flows towards Spain, leading to a substantial increase in the labor force and robust job creation.

However, the Commission anticipates a deceleration in immigration flows, partially due to the economic slowdown.

Despite this, the services sector remains relatively stable, where most migrants seek employment.

In analysis of the current trends, the Commission noted that alongside the decrease in immigrant arrivals, there are also lower year-on-year rates in the labor force, which automatically has a positive impact on the evolution of the unemployment rate: a lower labor force is accompanied by a lower unemployment rate.

The figures suggest that the unemployment rate is set to drop below the 10% mark for the first time since 2007. Nevertheless, Spain continues to hold the record for the highest unemployment within the EU, with 2025 projected to end with an unemployment rate of 10.4%.

The Commission also emphasized the issue of long-term unemployment, which remains more challenging to reduce, as noted by the Bank of Spain.

This persistent long-term unemployment contributes to a higher starting point for unemployment figures compared to other European powers.

Regarding economic growth, the projected GDP growth for Spain is expected to decline from 3.2% last year to 2.6% this year, eventually tapering to 2% next year, indicating a clear economic moderation.

The 2.6% forecast for the current year represents a three-tenths increase from the previous autumn's estimates, highlighting Spain's position as the leading economy in terms of growth within the Eurozone and the EU amid a broader economic slowdown due to trade tensions.

The European Commission noted that current growth prospects have been notably revised downwards, largely due to weakening global trade outlooks and increased uncertainty in trade policy.

The growth forecast for the Eurozone has been reduced by four-tenths to just 0.9%, and the forecast for the EU stands at a modest 1.1%.

Looking ahead to 2026, the projected economic trajectory in Europe will diverge, with overall growth expected to accelerate while Spain’s economy is forecasted to decline to 2%.

This shift suggests that the years where Madrid could boast of outpacing the European economic recovery may be coming to an end, as rapid changes in economic realities continue to challenge previous assumptions.